Live ledger
Public MLB bets logged at lock-time, graded against closing line and final result. ML + spread markets. Started 2026-05-28. Last grading: 2026-06-18.
Closing line value
Cumulative average CLV across all graded bets. Positive = lock odds beat the closing line. This is what we optimize for; daily ROI variance is downstream of it.
Cumulative ROI on stake
Cumulative profit ÷ cumulative wagered, after each settled bet. Dashed line at 0% = breakeven.
Bankroll
Virtual $100,000 starting bankroll. Real bet sizing on real odds. Dashed line marks the starting balance.
Recent bets
Newest first. Odds locked at logging time; closing odds fetched after the game starts.
| Date | Game | Bet | Lock | Close | CLV | Res | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-17 | BAL @ SEA | Spread home -1.5 | 2.62 | 2.64 | −0.29pp | L | −$437.73 |
| 06-17 | PIT @ ATH | Spread home +1.5 | 1.66 | 1.77 | −3.72pp | L | −$778.77 |
| 06-17 | CHW @ NYY | Spread home -1.5 | 2.18 | 2.18 | 0.00pp | W | +$1,066.07 |
| 06-17 | LAA @ ARI | Spread away +1.5 | 1.68 | 1.66 | +0.79pp | L | −$1,209.65 |
| 06-17 | LAA @ ARI | ML away | 2.46 | 2.46 | 0.00pp | L | −$1,209.65 |
| 06-17 | TBR @ LAD | Spread home -1.5 | 2.30 | 2.42 | −2.16pp | L | −$309.75 |
| 06-16 | PIT @ ATH | Spread home -1.5 | 2.42 | 2.40 | +0.34pp | L | −$517.31 |
| 06-16 | DET @ HOU | Spread away +1.5 | 1.66 | 1.69 | −1.22pp | L | −$899.79 |
| 06-16 | DET @ HOU | ML away | 2.50 | 2.42 | +1.32pp | L | −$670.18 |
| 06-16 | SDP @ STL | Spread home +1.5 | 1.50 | 1.48 | +1.07pp | W | +$232.84 |
| 06-16 | NYM @ CIN | Spread home +1.5 | 1.65 | 1.61 | +1.51pp | W | +$333.37 |
| 06-16 | CHW @ NYY | Spread home -1.5 | 2.50 | 2.46 | +0.65pp | W | +$471.81 |
| 06-16 | MIA @ PHI | Spread away +1.5 | 1.66 | 1.72 | −2.26pp | L | −$367.30 |
| 06-15 | TBR @ LAD | ML away | 2.40 | 2.60 | −3.21pp | L | −$517.16 |
| 06-15 | TBR @ LAD | Spread away +1.5 | 1.71 | 1.75 | −1.22pp | W | +$782.26 |
| 06-15 | NYM @ CIN | ML away | 2.20 | 2.16 | +0.84pp | L | −$543.14 |
| 06-15 | NYM @ CIN | Spread away +1.5 | 1.55 | 1.53 | +0.76pp | L | −$894.70 |
| 06-15 | MIA @ PHI | ML away | 2.76 | 2.60 | +2.23pp | L | −$790.69 |
| 06-15 | MIA @ PHI | Spread away +1.5 | 1.78 | 1.75 | +1.08pp | L | −$1,161.58 |
| 06-14 | TEX @ BOS | ML away | 1.96 | 1.98 | −0.53pp | W | +$275.34 |
| 06-14 | TEX @ BOS | Spread away -1.5 | 2.46 | 2.50 | −0.65pp | W | +$396.83 |
| 06-14 | PHI @ MIL | Spread home +1.5 | 1.55 | 1.60 | −2.11pp | W | +$299.37 |
| 06-14 | LAD @ CHW | Spread away -1.5 | 1.82 | 1.88 | −1.67pp | L | −$353.67 |
| 06-14 | STL @ MIN | Spread away -1.5 | 2.62 | 2.42 | +3.15pp | L | −$482.64 |
| 06-14 | DET @ CLE | Spread away -1.5 | 2.60 | — | — | · | — |
| 06-14 | SEA @ WSN | Spread home +1.5 | 1.76 | 1.68 | +2.53pp | W | +$318.42 |
| 06-13 | LAD @ CHW | ML home | 2.72 | 2.80 | −1.05pp | L | −$807.52 |
| 06-13 | LAD @ CHW | Spread home +1.5 | 2.00 | 2.05 | −1.22pp | L | −$1,300.91 |
| 06-13 | MIA @ PIT | Spread away +1.5 | 1.51 | 1.43 | +3.93pp | W | +$663.46 |
| 06-13 | MIA @ PIT | ML away | 2.12 | 1.98 | +3.33pp | L | −$1,246.01 |
| 06-13 | SEA @ WSN | Spread away -1.5 | 2.50 | 2.62 | −1.83pp | L | −$318.72 |
| 06-13 | NYY @ TOR | Spread home +1.5 | 1.60 | 1.58 | +0.74pp | L | −$279.87 |
| 06-13 | STL @ MIN | ML away | 1.94 | 1.91 | +0.83pp | W | +$349.41 |
| 06-13 | STL @ MIN | Spread away -1.5 | 2.58 | 2.42 | +2.56pp | W | +$944.27 |
| 06-12 | TBR @ LAA | Spread home +1.5 | 1.87 | 1.87 | +0.01pp | W | +$534.62 |
| 06-12 | STL @ MIN | ML away | 2.16 | 2.16 | 0.00pp | L | −$597.42 |
| 06-12 | STL @ MIN | Spread away +1.5 | 1.56 | 1.57 | −0.34pp | W | +$572.14 |
| 06-12 | HOU @ KCR | Spread home +1.5 | 1.60 | 1.55 | +2.04pp | L | −$357.97 |
| 06-12 | PHI @ MIL | Spread away +1.5 | 1.91 | 1.93 | −0.43pp | L | −$289.34 |
| 06-12 | TEX @ BOS | Spread away +1.5 | 1.50 | 1.52 | −0.68pp | L | −$414.77 |
| 06-12 | DET @ CLE | ML away | 2.02 | 2.02 | 0.00pp | L | −$655.17 |
| 06-12 | DET @ CLE | Spread away +1.5 | 1.51 | 1.45 | +2.75pp | W | +$666.82 |
| 06-12 | SEA @ WSN | ML away | 1.68 | 1.68 | +0.15pp | W | +$249.17 |
| 06-12 | SEA @ WSN | Spread away -1.5 | 2.14 | 2.12 | +0.44pp | W | +$699.26 |
| 06-11 | SEA @ BAL | Spread home +1.5 | 1.58 | 1.57 | +0.48pp | W | +$241.06 |
| 06-11 | CHC @ COL | Spread home +1.5 | 1.83 | 1.83 | −0.10pp | L | −$612.29 |
| 06-11 | ARI @ MIA | Spread home +1.5 | 1.52 | 1.50 | +0.88pp | W | +$293.32 |
| 06-11 | STL @ NYM | ML away | 2.22 | 2.30 | −1.57pp | L | −$1,071.01 |
| 06-11 | STL @ NYM | Spread away +1.5 | 1.58 | 1.60 | −0.88pp | W | +$754.42 |
| 06-10 | HOU @ LAA | ML home | 1.86 | 1.83 | +0.78pp | W | +$680 |
ML + spread only. Bets logged at lock-time on real odds from listed sportsbooks; closing odds fetched from the same book when available. A missing closing odds entry means the matching line wasn't on the board at close — we don't substitute alternates. CLV is shown in percentage points (pp) of implied probability — +2pp means a price two points better than where the line closed. See methodology for what we measure and why.