Track record

2024 + 2025 walk-forward backtest. Flat $100 stake at 5% vig. ML + spread markets.

Bets
4,444
Blended ROI
+14.6%
ML ROI
+16.8%
Spread ROI
+12.3%

Cumulative ROI on stake

Cumulative profit ÷ cumulative stake, by week. Off-season (Oct–Mar) excluded; dashed line marks the 2024→2025 season break. Early-season volatility reflects small cumulative sample.

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% AprMayJunJulAugSepAprMayJunJulAugSep 2024 2025

Reliability diagram

Predicted probability (x) vs actual hit rate (y), bucketed by 10% bins. Dashed diagonal = perfect calibration. Point size scales with sample; bins with n < 30 hidden as noise.

moneyline

0 0 25 25 50 50 75 75 100 100

spread

0 0 25 25 50 50 75 75 100 100

Edge bucket analysis

All bets grouped by model edge (model_prob − fair_prob). Monotonic ROI by bucket = signal works.

EdgeNWin %ROI
5-7% 1,135 54.0% +5.1%
7-9% 929 55.2% +6.3%
9-11% 699 55.9% +11.3%
11-13% 512 59.4% +16.1%
13-15% 344 61.3% +20.5%
15-20% 536 65.1% +31.0%
20-25% 175 74.9% +56.3%
25%+ 114 49.1% +30.5%

Source: outputs/analysis/r62_per_market_bets.csv · ML + spread only (v1 scope) · regenerated nightly.